nt politics
12 Aug 2008
The Top End Turns
The 9 per cent swing against the Labor Government on Saturday marks a return to the natural order in the Northern Territory, argues Stephen Johnson
Paul Henderson's Northern Territory Labor Government has done what the Country Liberal Party couldn't do during two decades in power - lose seats at a general election.Saturday's results were a far cry from three years ago, when, in an extraordinary political feat the newly re-elected NT Labor Government - then fronted by ex-ABC journalist Clare Martin - claimed the seat of Opposition leader Denis Burke. The CLP, the party that held government in the Territory for 27 years until 2001, was left with just four seats in a 25-seat parliament. Labor scooped up 19 seats, while two electorates stayed with conservative independents.
In the aftermath of that crushing defeat, former CLP chief minister Shane Stone told his party that they would have been wiped out if Martin had called the election a year earlier. Under that scenario, the current Opposition leader, Terry Mills, would have gone down in political history alongside the Australian Democrats.
Instead, Mills kept his seat in 2005 and went on to become the saviour of the Country Liberals three years later. The recycled leader, and former school principal, has managed to claw back seven seats for the party.
Labor was declared the winner in the cliffhanger seat of Fannie Bay last night, leaving it with a one seat majority of 13 seats. The Country Liberals romped home with 11 seats. The balance-of-power services of conservative independent and former chicken farmer, Gerry Wood, will not be needed in this term.
The seven-year-old Labor Government has lost six seats in the process. Between 1980 and 2001, the Country Liberals never lost a seat at a general election.
In 2008, the Country Liberals' plan to impose curfews on kids under 16 did more to excite voters than Labor's tenuous promise that Japanese oil and gas explorer Inpex might open a liquefied natural gas plant in Darwin. The dire living standards in far-away Aboriginal communities is not a vote-changer in the tropical, marginal seat suburbs where swinging electorates are home to an average of 4800 voters.
The Country Liberals may not have won government this time, but on present counts they appear to have won the primary vote - as they have done at all elections save the last one since Malcolm Fraser granted the Territory self-governance in 1978. This election is the restoration of the natural order.
Seven months ago, the Country Liberals dumped Jodeen Carney as Opposition Leader simply because her Alice Springs electorate was too far away from the marginal seats in Darwin's northern suburbs. The strategy worked. The Country Liberals claimed the seats of three Top End ministers, and also won back Denis Burke's old Palmerston-based seat of Brennan - lost three years earlier to a Labor candidate with the same surname: James Burke.
Clare Martin was pushed out of office by her own party in November last year, just days after Kevin Rudd won Labor its first federal election since 1993. Labor would at least have been reassured of maintaining her inner-Darwin seat of Fannie Bay in 2008 if the caucus hadn't dumped their most electorally successful leader.
Paul Henderson called the election early to capitalise on disunity in the Country Liberals where, up until last week, a replacement Opposition leader was being discussed. But Shane Stone's advice to his Labor adversaries clearly hasn't worked. Voters were turned off by an election called a year early.
Historically, Territory voters have forgiven CLP politicians for far worse behaviour. Mick Palmer, who famously took out his false teeth to head-butt a Sunday newspaper journalist at a pub, comfortably held the Darwin electorate of Karama for 14 years.
At this year's poll, Labor's Environment Minister Len Kiely lost his northern suburbs seat of Sanderson after the female security guard he harassed at the cricket two years earlier letterbox-dropped his electorate. Her pamphlets explained how a drunken Kiely had boasted of his very long tongue's ability to bring women happiness.
Sport and Recreation Minister Matthew Bonson, who once made the news for getting into a punch-up at a basketball game, lost the newly created seat of Fong Lim to the Country Liberals' David Tollner. Tollner had lost his Darwin-based federal seat of Solomon in November.
The CLP lost the red centre seat of Macdonnell in 2005 but this time it chose not to contest the electorate - leaving Alison Anderson to be re-elected unopposed. (Former ABC newsreader Malarndirri McCarthy was also elected unopposed in Arnhem.) Macdonnell's losing candidate in 2005 John Elferink, who once enticed bush voters with kangaroo tails, resurfaced in 2008 as the Country Liberals' successful candidate in the cosmopolitan Darwin electorate of Port Darwin, where voters can get their kangaroo grilled at an up-market waterside restaurant.
Paul Henderson's Labor Government was arguably more competent than Morris Iemma's dysfunctional team in NSW which still managed to get comfortably re-elected in 2007 despite being in power for 12 years.
Like the Liberals in NSW, Labor is not the natural party of government in the Territory.
Northern Territory voters, who pride themselves on being rugged, frontier-country types are naturally conservative. Labor is not the party of choice for many voters who enjoy a spot of feral pig shooting. Barramundi fishermen worry that native title claims could jeopardise their access to tidal waters. To them, the Country Liberals are still the party that stands up to Aboriginal land councils, even though Terry Mills is much more conciliatory than Shane Stone ever was.
Labor has only won the primary vote once in a Territory election and that was in 2005 when it won a commanding a once-in-a-generation majority. To win back then, Labor had promised to lock up habitual (code: dark-skinned) drunks with the slogan "get treatment or face jail".
Three years ago, CLP stood for Clare's Labor Party - a term of endearment for a leader who had managed to kick the Opposition leader out of his seat. This time, many of these suburban voters preferred the real law and order team - the Country Liberals - rather than an ALP outfit which talked tough, but not tough enough when it came to that unruly riff-raff on the streets.
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While much of what is said here rings true, many of my friends have spoken to me of not voting because they were so disenchanted with the ALP but still could not bring themselves to vote CLP. Those that had a choice to vote Greens, did so. So it is more than a defaulting to a natural CLP state. The absence of social policies, the negativity and cheap-shot nature of the campaign, the reliance on the argument about a gas plant with no comment about plans for civic development, creative industry development, the university, schools, green house, public transport, water management etc has been very disappointing for people. In Fannie Bay, people loyal to Claire felt disappointed that a junior candidate whose only claim to fame previously was a debacle of abandoning a government car and claiming it stolen to avoid a breathalyser was the heir to her baton…it just felt insulting to them.
Stephen Johnson is pretty much on the mark and so is Tess Lea, particularly with regard to the negativity and cheap shot nature of the campaign and the absence of social policy emphasis.
There’s no wonder the Greens polled so well and in future if they put up some credible candidates, they will gain seats.They would do well to stand a candidate in the rural seat currently held by the conservative Clayton’s Independent and seriously tackle Green issues, conservation and an end to land clearing.
I was astounded Labor went to the polls before resolving the long running dispute with the Teachers. There was much resentment amongst teachers I spoke to who were swinging voters and expressed their resentment accordingly. There does not appear to be an understanding by the Education Department that the issues concerning teachers was not just about money but support and dialogue; giving credit to teachers professionalism
Alice Springs is Australia’s ‘Little Rock’; the disgraceful display of Country Liberal orchestrated reception for Claire Martin where she was constantly BOOED whilst attempting to explain her position on the intervention left no doubts in my mind that the resultant drift to town by Aboriginal men and the increase in drunken behaviour was blamed on the N.T. Government instead of the Howard-Brough Invasion policies.
The loss of ‘men behaving badly’ was no surprise and Paul Henderson would do well to ensure that he pays attention to the behaviour of his Ministers whilst the Labor Party scrutinise candidates in their pre-selection process to weed out the dead wood.
The success of the Greens in the Territory election has been exaggerated. The minor party contested just six of the NT’s 25 seats, winning four per cent of the vote across the wider Territory electorate. The ABC’s election analyst calculates a miniscule 0.2 per cent swing towards them at the 2008 election.
True, the Greens did well in the beachside, bike path electorate of Nightcliff where their candidate Emma Young won more than 23 per cent of the primary vote. But she still came third.
Nightcliff was the electorate where left-wing independent Dawn Lawrie (the mum of Labor Treasurer Delia) was a popular local member some three decades ago. A progressive independent would have more chance of winning an inner Darwin seat, if the incumbent Labor member wasn’t runnnig for re-election, than a Greens candidate.
Let’s not forget the most interesting stat of the election campaign: 30% of eligible voters didn’t turn out.
I am not sure if it is true or not, and do not pretend to be an expert, but I have heard that the CLP did not so much gain votes as the ALP lost them. I just hope this kick up the pants makes for better government. I guess I am also hoping that Stephen is wrong about the return of the redneck (huntin, fishin, shootin) voter, but in my heart of heart, I think he’s nailed it ) :
I have posted my idle reflections on the near debacle and possible lessons as NT election: Waking from a Bad Dream.
As an ex-Territorian I was not that surprised. About as many people vote in the NT as in a Victorian Council election and the issues are often as parochial.
Kevin Rennie
http://laborview.blogspot.com/